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Demand-Led Growth and why fixed budgets are stifling your retail performance

Written by Steve Warrington | Aug 14, 2025 9:38:32 AM

Introduction to Demand-Led Growth

Demand-led growth is a strategy for retailers that allows your media investment to scale in real time with actual consumer demand. In Google’s AI-first media environment, especially within Performance Max (PMax), Demand Gen, and AI Max campaigns, this means uncapping your budgets and enabling this powerful AI to allocate spend based on live demand signals. 

Demand-led is about removing artificially imposed limits in order to maximise reach and ensure your products are visible when consumers are actively searching. In the era of AI, a new way of working has been established. This approach represents a foundational shift in how growth is achieved for forward-thinking retailers.

Why retailers need a new approach

Recent research we developed with Retail Economics, reveals that Search remains undervalued by many retailers, especially when it comes to investment and the impact it delivers. Demand-led growth begins when paid media is viewed as a revenue-driving engine, rather than just part of the traditional marketing mix.

Most media budgets are set on monthly or quarterly cycles. Some retailers attempt even greater control, budgeting weekly, or in extreme cases, daily. This stands in stark contrast to the needs of an AI-led media environment, where tightening controls only adds friction to a system designed for flexibility.

These approaches come from historic ways of working, offering control and predictability rather than performance, and this pre-defined view assumes predictable demand, but we all know real consumer demand fluctuates daily, driven by everything from weather shifts to competitor promotions to social trends. Traditional budgeting can’t keep up. 

Our perspective on Google’s Demand-Led principle

Google’s PMax model is designed to scale in real time with consumer demand. But “uncapping budgets” is only valuable if that flexibility is anchored to commercial outcomes and governed in a way your board will support.

By giving PMax full visibility of market demand (Total Addressable Market) through a demand-led approach, retailers enable richer data, deeper learning, and better alignment with upper-funnel media that drives brand consideration. The result is stronger performance across Google’s AI-powered ecosystem.

We’ve developed a commercially governed, cross-functional framework based on Google’s principles:

  • Sales and Measurement:
    • Use budget headroom to capture incremental orders during surges like payday weekends, product launches, major email pushes, or influencer moments.
    • Sales uplift and incrementality can be proven against a control, using techniques such as causal impact modelling, geo hold-out testing, or matched market analysis, enabling budgets to flex in line with real demand surges rather than being constrained by fixed monthly limits.
  • Finance:
    • Set guardrails before any budget increase. Define target contribution margin after ad spend and maximum payback windows (factoring in product consideration cycles, your attribution model’s view of conversions, and broader value signals such as customer lifetime value).
    • Approve flexibility only when live performance meets or exceeds these thresholds.
    • Report weekly on spend, revenue, contribution, and cash payback, not just ROAS.
  • Product:
    • Avoid buying demand you can’t fulfil. Sync budgets with inventory, shipping SLAs, and returns risk.
    • Pause or cap SKUs with low stock or high refund probability, and map budget decisions to SKU-level profit, not just top-line sales.
  • Marketing:
    • Treat the budget as an upper limit, not a daily target.
    • Use pacing to stay within the monthly envelope while allowing the system to surge on high-quality traffic.
    • Align bursts with broader marketing activity so paid demand amplifies brand moments.

This approach ensures PMax operates with full market visibility while keeping surges intentional, profitable, and operationally sustainable. It reframes the decision from “Can we afford to spend more today?” to “Can we afford to miss this demand?”.

Traditional vs Demand-led budgeting

  Traditional budgeting Demand-led budgeting
Budget cycle Weekly, monthly or quarterly Real-time
Flexibility Limited, flexible caps Fully adaptive
Response time Delayed, retrospective Immediate, proactive
Optimisation Reactive, limited scope Continuous, extensive
Metrics ROAS, budget deployed, spend limits Incrementality, profitability, causal impact

 

The hidden costs of budget limits

When budgets are fixed, growth is capped. Each day your PMax campaign hits a budget ceiling is a day of lost learning and lost opportunity. 

Imposed capping means that Google’s AI can't see your Total Addressable Market (TAM) - the full scope of customers your products could reach if PMax is unconstrained - weakening its ability to optimise now and in future campaigns.

Why ‘day trading’  is a problem 

Manual interventions: constant ROAS tweaks can disrupt the AI’s learning cycles, reducing campaign effectiveness, particularly when they conflict with how Google’s systems are designed to optimise performance. They move the goal posts, introduce volatility, reduce signal quality, and ultimately make your campaigns less effective. Demand-led budgeting provides stability for the AI to optimise.

Measurement: the cornerstone of Demand-Led Growth 

Being demand-led is not just about removing ‘Limited by Budget’ flags. That’s a visible symptom of a deeper issue and one that often stems from outdated or incomplete measurement practices. If your organisation can’t prove the incremental, profitable value of flexible budgeting, you’ll never get sustained buy-in from finance, trading, or leadership.

To make demand-led growth stick, measurement needs to evolve from simple efficiency reporting to a decision-making framework. ROAS alone doesn’t tell the full story, and in many cases, it actively discourages growth investment. Instead, focus on:

  • Incrementality: Identify what sales are genuinely additional through geo-testing, holdouts, causal impact models, or media mix modelling (MMM) to capture the full contribution of all channels.
  • Profitability indicators: Measure contribution margin or cost of demand to ensure growth is margin-positive, not just revenue-positive.
  • Causal impact: Link spend directly to incremental results, building a credible, evidence-led case for flexibility.

‘Limited by Budget’ should not be treated as a minor optimisation alert, it’s a strategic red flag. It means your campaigns are being throttled, your PMax set up is starved of the data it needs to improve, and your business is leaving growth and revenue on the table.

When measurement proves that the additional spend delivers incremental profit, demand-led investment stops being a leap of faith. You’re able to position it to become the way a retailer needs to operate.

In our next blog, we’ll explore the metrics that truly matter, and share a measurement framework that proves whether your demand-led growth strategy is working.

Your Demand-led growth checklist

Want to go deeper? Our downloadable checklist gives you a playbook for implementing demand-led growth in your paid media strategy. Here’s what’s inside:

  • How to audit budgeting behaviour, not just campaign settings
  • Where to find hidden structural and signal-based constraints in PMax
  • How to safely uncap budgets and enable responsive media investment
  • What KPIs matter most for demand-led growth (beyond the vanity metrics )
  • How to align finance and trading teams to support fluid spend
  • Ways to empower media teams as orchestrators, not operators
  • How to structure dashboards, testing, and monthly reviews for sustained optimisation

Download now